Femi Otedola: From Geregu Power to First HoldCo – is he playing Warren Buffett? — by Taiwo Olanegan

Femi Otedola has a mentor-friend in Aliko Dangote. While his belief in Nigeria may not lead him to build refineries or manufacturing hubs like his mentor, Otedola’s field of play is the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). His climb up the Forbes ladder has been through the banking sector. Starting from a 5% acquisition of First Bank PLC shares in 2021, he has progressively built his stake to over 20% as of mid-2026, with further increases pushing it near 22% by July 2026.

In 2021, Femi Otedola acquired approximately 1.81 billion shares in FBN Holdings (First Bank’s parent company) through his investment vehicle, Calvados Global Services Limited. This initial accumulation made him the single largest shareholder at the time amid high-profile tussles with other contenders.

Subsequent purchases in late 2021 brought his total to around 2.7 billion shares, or 7.57% of First Bank, at an average acquisition price of roughly ₦16.48 per share. His total investment outlay reached about ₦44.8 billion.

The trajectory reached its crescendo in 2025–2026 with bold, record-setting maneuvers. Incremental acquisitions in September and December 2025, such as 369 million shares at ₦40.06 each for ₦14.8 billion, propelled his stake beyond 18%. In May 2026, he executed one of the NGX’s largest single-day individual transactions, purchasing 549.5 million shares for over ₦43.4 billion at about ₦79 apiece, lifting his ownership to 19.36%. A June 2026 private placement added roughly 673 million shares for ₦29.6 billion, culminating in over 9 billion shares or 20.4% of First HoldCo — his total personal investment surpassing ₦360 billion. Further buys, including a July 2026 transaction of 706 million shares at ₦109.88 for ₦77.6 billion, have continued to strengthen his position.

Otedola’s large and growing stake positioned him as a major shareholder and gave him substantial influence. This helped facilitate his entry onto the board as a director in mid-2023 and his confirmation as Chairman of First HoldCo in early 2024. His total acquisitions have made him the largest individual investor, anchoring one of Africa’s historic banks through resilience and substantial, self-funded capital.

This stewardship has coincided with stellar performance: First HoldCo’s H1 2026 profit before tax surged 83.5% to ₦653.5 billion, assets hit ₦30.6 trillion, and share prices soared, swelling the value of his position amid robust loan recoveries and market leadership.

Otedola’s approach at First HoldCo closely mirrors his highly successful Geregu Power PLC strategy, a textbook case of acquiring undervalued assets, driving operational scaling and profitability, and exiting (or positioning to monetize) at peak valuations.

Through Amperion Power Distribution Company Ltd, Otedola acquired the Geregu power plant during Nigeria’s 2013 power sector privatization. He scaled it from 40 MW to 435 MW nameplate capacity, turning it into a consistently profitable generator contributing meaningfully to the national grid and paying substantial dividends. In October 2022, Geregu listed on the NGX at ₦100 per share (₦250 billion market cap). Otedola held dominant control (often >70–95%), strategically diluting slightly to attract institutional investors while retaining influence. This was a classical repeat of what Aliko Dangote did with Benue Cement Company.

By late 2025, Geregu Plc’s share price had exploded to around ₦1,141.50, a gain of over 1,041% from IPO levels, as the company’s market cap approached ₦2.9 trillion. In December 2025, he executed a landmark exit: selling his controlling about 77% stake (via 95% of Amperion) to MA’AM Energy Limited in a $750 million (₦1.09 Trillion) deal. This delivered an estimated $618 million profit and roughly a 5.7x return on the IPO-era base, allowing capital recycling while he retained a small residual stake.

Is Femi Otedola Replaying the Geregu Game at First Bank? Yes! The parallels are striking: low-price accumulation (Geregu post-privatization; First Bank at ₦12–₦78), active stewardship for turnaround (capacity/profit growth at Geregu; loan recoveries, asset expansion, and PBT surge at First HoldCo), board-level influence, and positioning amid rising valuations and market confidence.

In both cases, Otedola deploys patient, high-conviction capital on the NGX, leveraging mentorship echoes from Aliko Dangote and a deep belief in Nigeria. Geregu offered a nimbler exit in a privatized power context. First Bank, however, as a systemically vital institution under stricter CBN regulation, suggests a longer stewardship horizon.

Nevertheless, Femi Otedola’s core logic – buy low, build value and influence, realize gains at premium prices – remains intact. His Geregu exit funded his diversification interest in First Bank and Dangote Refinery. Hopefully, the ambition to sell off First Bank at great prices and profits in the future, after anchoring its recovery, seems not just plausible but probable.

Should the dynamics of the Nigerian Exchange be left to the levers of whale investors like Aliko Dangote and Femi Otedola? Are there opportunities for little fishes to swim in the direction of the mighty wave stirred by bigger amphibians? Certainly. Those who jumped into Geregu at ₦150 in 2022 must have earned 8x the value of their investment if they kept the faith and exited alongside Femi when he sold his stake for $750 million in 2025. A ₦5 million invested by a teacher or nurse into Geregu in 2022 would have galloped to ₦40 million in 2025. Similarly, a ₦6 million injection to purchase First Bank shares in 2021 would be worth ₦70 million today.

The Nigerian investment musical note is not only for billionaires. Speak to a financial advisor today.