Kwankwaso: The president who missed his moment, by Ahmad Mahadi
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso remains one of the most recognizable figures in Nigerian politics. With his iconic red cap and massive grassroots following in Kano, he has built a loyal movement that few can match. Yet despite his charisma and ambition, Kwankwaso’s chances of becoming Nigeria’s president have steadily faded.
His biggest mistake was leaving the APC too soon. Had he stayed and positioned himself as Buhari’s natural successor, he could have captured a significant portion of Buhari’s 12.5 million votes. Instead, his exit left him stranded in the NNPP — a party vibrant in Kano but weak nationally. His 2023 run exposed this weakness, showing that the NNPP, despite noise and energy, lacks the spread to compete with the APC and PDP.
Kwankwaso’s refusal to compromise has also cost him. He is widely seen as a man too rigid, too obsessed with being at the top to serve under others. In Nigeria’s political climate, where alliances and patience often determine power, this image has worked against him. Buhari endured decades of losses before finally winning. Kwankwaso has shown less resilience and less strategic flexibility.
Some argue he could still rejoin the APC, perhaps even as Tinubu’s running mate in 2027 if Kashim Shettima is dropped. While that would boost Tinubu in Kano, it is hard to see the APC handing Kwankwaso the presidential ticket in 2031. The party is dominated by power brokers who view him as unpredictable and overly ambitious.
The reality is simple: Kwankwaso may never be president. His future role may be as a kingmaker, not a king. He could use his Kwankwasiyya movement to bargain for influence or mentor younger politicians who can carry on his legacy. Otherwise, he risks being remembered not as the president who could have been, but as the politician who missed his moment.
