REPORT: NGX market value hits N158.10trn, tables four requests

The NGX Group briefing to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on 6 August 2026 puts market capitalisation at N158.10trn as at 5 August, from N28.70trn in H1 2023, with the All-Share Index at 244,912.24 and foreign portfolio flows at N1.28trn from N185.62bn, a multiple of 6.90 times on Proshare’s computation. The Exchange returned 57% in H1 2026, second among the six benchmarks in the presentation. Two of the four printed growth rates do not follow from the values beside them. The 339% index gain follows from a base of 55,808, the level NGX used in March 2026, while the 52,974 printed on the same slide returns 362.33%. Transactions of N6.08trn against N3.96trn return 53.54% against the 116% printed. The State House headline of N160trn sits 1.20% above the presentation figure.

NGX projects N230trn by year-end, requiring 45.48% appreciation over the 148 calendar days from 5 August, and the presentation names no listings, valuations or timing behind it. At the NFEM rate of N1,362.55 on 6 August, the market converts to US$116.03bn, placing the US$1 trillion target set by the Minister of Finance at 8.62 times current value. The President committed to reforming and listing NNPC without stating a timetable, a transaction structure or the proportion to be offered. The other three requests drew no recorded commitment. Investors should track the naming of the listing pipeline, the NNPC transaction sequence, the tax position on listed securities, the split of capitalisation between equities and fixed income, and primary issuance against the N158.10trn secondary valuation.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu received the Board and Management of NGX Group Plc at the State House, Abuja, on Thursday, 06 August 2026. The delegation was led by the Chairman, Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, and the Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Temi Popoola. The presentation, titled “From Market Recovery to National Capital Formation”, was built around four headline numbers, four reform drivers, four outlook themes and four requests to the President.

The President commended the Economic Management Team, naming the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, the Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, and the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Revenue Service, Dr Zacch Adedeji. He said the reforms satisfied global best practices and set a foundation for long-term sustainable growth.

“The President said: ‘I found a partner in the CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso. We were in the negative with monetary policy and the reserve. We had N30 trillion printed, and there were liabilities.’ He added that the private sector carries a large share of the job-creation task, that the US$1 trillion economy target is achievable given the country’s population, and that NNPC will be reformed and listed on the capital market.

The numbers presented to the President

The presentation records market capitalisation at N158.10trn as at 5 August 2026 against N28.70trn in H1 2023, the All-Share Index at 244,912.24 against 52,974, total equity-market transactions at N6.08trn against N3.96trn, and foreign portfolio flows at N1.28trn against N185.62bn. The State House press release and Popoola’s quoted remarks put the current market value at N160trn, which sits 1.20% above the figure printed in the presentation. The President’s own published statement puts market capitalisation beyond N158trn and foreign portfolio investment at N1.28trn, in line with the presentation.

Table 1: NGX headline figures presented to the President, H1 2023 against 5 August 2026.

Where the stated percentage changes do not reconcile

Two of the four stated growth percentages do not follow from the base and current values printed beside them on the same slide.

First, the market capitalisation gain holds. Proshare’s computation on the printed values returns 450.87% against the stated 450%, and the foreign portfolio flow figures return 589.58% and 6.90 times against the stated 590% and approximately seven times.

Second, the All-Share Index gain of 339% does not follow from the printed base of 52,974, which returns 362.33%. A gain of 339% follows from a base of 55,808, the level NGX cited in a March 2026 presentation as the All-Share Index at the change of administration, which returns 338.85%. The slide prints one base and applies a percentage computed from another.

Third, the transaction-value gain of 116% does not follow from the printed base of N3.96trn, which returns 53.54%. A gain of 116% requires a base near N2.81trn.

The presentation records “market capitalisation” without disaggregating equities from fixed-income and other listed securities. NGX operates as a multi-asset exchange carrying federal, state and corporate bonds, sukuk, exchange-traded products and memorandum listings alongside equities. Popoola’s quoted remarks to the President refer to the total value of stocks listed in Nigeria. NGX’s published equity market capitalisation series would settle the composition and allow the H1 2023 base to be verified independently.

Corporate earnings and the peer ranking

The presentation sets profit before tax for five listed issuers in H1 2023 against H1 2026 and badges the group at 6.2 times.

Table 2: Profit before tax for five issuers cited in the presentation, H1 2023 against H1 2026 (Nbn).

Proshare’s computation on the printed values returns an aggregate multiple of 6.64 times and a median of 5.45 times across the five issuers. Neither returns the 6.2 times badged on the slide. The presentation identifies the issuers by short name without naming the listed entity, and Dangote and BUA each have more than one company listed on the Exchange, so the earnings series cannot be tied to a specific issuer from the slide alone.

On relative performance, the presentation places NGX second among six benchmarks on H1 2026 index return at 57%, behind KOSPI at 101% and ahead of Nikkei 225 at 39%, Kenya NSE at 27%, MSCI Emerging Markets at 24% and FTSE 100 at 6%. The gap to the leading benchmark is 44 percentage points. The slide does not state whether the returns are local-currency or dollar-denominated, a distinction that carries weight for a market whose base currency has moved substantially over the comparison period.

The four requests and the recorded response

NGX asked the President for four interventions to convert the market recovery into a national capital-formation programme.

Table 3: NGX requests to the President and the recorded response, 06 August 2026.

The public record of the meeting carries a presidential response to one of the four requests. Indorama Corporation, NLNG and Eleme Petrochemicals, also named in Request 1, appear neither in the press release nor in the President’s published statement. Request 2, Request 3 and Request 4 drew no recorded commitment. The State House reported in August 2025 that the President had been invited to the NGX trading floor during his state visit to Brazil, and that invitation had not been taken up as at the date of this meeting.

The Minister of Finance spoke to the listing process and retail participation. Oyedele said the listing process could be simplified to favour more Nigerians and challenged NGX and the Securities and Exchange Commission to target a US$1 trillion market. He said young Nigerians place money in virtual assets and gambling where the capital market offers better returns. The press release does not record a statement from him on the capital-gains-tax question raised in Request 3.

The delivery tests

First, the year-end capitalisation print. Popoola told the President the figure should reach N230trn by the end of 2026 on the strength of listings expected in the market. From N158.10trn on 5 August 2026, that requires 45.48% appreciation over 148 calendar days. The presentation does not name the expected listings, their indicative valuations or their timing, and the projection cannot be tested without them.

Second, the dollar conversion. At the NFEM rate of N1,362.55 to the dollar published by the Central Bank of Nigeria on 6 August 2026, the N158.10trn market converts to US$116.03bn. The US$1 trillion market challenge set by the Minister of Finance requires 8.62 times the current level, equivalent to N1,362.55trn at the same rate. Neither the presentation nor the press release states an exchange rate or a horizon for the target.

Third, the wealth claim. Popoola estimated that between 500,000 and 900,000 millionaires had been created by the reforms and stated that exact figures were not available. The range spans 400,000, equal to 80.00% of the lower bound. The presentation does not state the currency, the measurement basis, the data source or the treatment of holdings that predate 2023.

Fourth, the recapitalisation funding mix. Cardoso told the meeting that close to 75% of the banking recapitalisation was funded from domestic resources, reversing the historical pattern. Bank filings and CBN disclosure would confirm the aggregate capital raised over the recapitalisation window and its split between domestic and foreign subscription.

The measurable outcomes from this meeting are the year-end market capitalisation print against N230trn, the disaggregation of equity from fixed-income capitalisation, the naming of the listings behind the projection, the passage of NNPC through the reform and listing sequence, the position taken on the capital-gains-tax treatment of listed securities, and the take-up of the standing invitation to the Exchange. Proshare will track each against the record.

Credit: Proshare