Super El Niño: 33.5 million food insecurity projection not linked to Tinubu’s policies, minister says
The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security has dismissed claims linking a projection of 33.5 million Nigerians facing food insecurity in 2027 to President Bola Tinubu’s possible re-election, describing the interpretation as political propaganda.
The minister said the October 2026 Cadre Harmonisé food security assessment was an early-warning tool designed to identify food and nutrition insecurity risks, not an election forecast.
In a statement, the minister said it was unfortunate that opposition figures were attempting to turn the assessment into a political campaign message.
“The assessment does not say that 33.5 million Nigerians will face food insecurity because President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is re-elected in 2027. That interpretation was added for political purposes,” he said.
He explained that the Cadre Harmonisé was developed by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), alongside regional and technical partners, with support from organisations including the Food and Agriculture Organisation, World Food Programme, FEWS NET, UNICEF and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.
According to him, the projected figure of 33.5 million relates to the June to August 2027 period and should be understood within the seasonal nature of food insecurity.
He noted that the projection represented a decline from the 34.8 million people projected to face severe food and nutrition insecurity during the corresponding period in 2026.
The minister said the assessment identified several factors contributing to food insecurity, including climate change, inconsistent rainfall, prolonged dry spells and the Super El Niño phenomenon, which has disrupted weather patterns and affected planting seasons and crop production.
