Despite odds, Tinubu is hugely projected for re-election, by Kola Amzat  

As Nigeria moves closer to another election cycle, the eclipse is beginning to give way, clearing the uncertainty that has characterized the political horizon in the last couple of months particularly with respect to the likelihood of would-be the torch-bearer of the key political parties.

From the on-set when Alhaji Atiku Abubakar led his goons to hijack the hitherto obscure ADC, it was crystal clear that the former vice-president would ultimately fly the flag of the party at presidential polls.

Nigerian acknowledged that the earlier convergence of the politically displaced and disgruntled elements in the party, a development that temporarily gave the party a semblance of a main opposition party would be short-lived.

In-fact at a stage, it appeared that the opposition was set to put a stunt similar to APC in 2015. At that time, they were preoccupied with the illusion of 2023 poll results when they jointly garnered more votes of about 13 million than the eventual winner-Asiwaju Tinubu who recorded about 8.7 million votes.

But, much as they hoped to berth in Aso Villa in 2027 with their illusion of combined votes of 13 million recorded, it was a matter of time before it dawned on them that they were just dreaming as individual ambition and ego truncated that dream.

Meanwhile, Nigerians have been vindicated by the recent implosion that has rocked the party, as the marriage of inconvenience has irretrievably broken down and collapsed with the duo of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso final resolve to part way with the party, and seek refuge in NDC-another fringe and hitherto obscure party.

The duo dumped the party alongside their vociferous and belligerent faithful across the country.

It’s instructive to note that the political Tsunami that hit the ADC was precipitated largely on account of Atiku Abubakar’s reckless and very unguarded outburst during his recent appearance at Arise TV where he willingly denigrated his fellow political wanderers and disgruntled within the ADC.

This was Atiku pronouncement-“Can you tell me who is a current leader in the North who has more votes that I have” Talking of leaders like Tambuwal, Kwankwaso, El-Rufai, and also the emerging political leaders, none of them got Northern votes as much as I’ve got Kwankwaso’s popularity is restricted to only Kano. Kano is even now split between him and Governor Abba Yusuff”

“I’m more popular than all of them. None of them has garnered the kind of bloc votes that I have”

Such a very insensitive declaration could only come from someone who is totally oblivious of egos and the self-important mentality of a typical Nigerian politician.

More importantly, such damaging and destructive pronouncements could only come from the lip of someone who has been hounded. And, there is no doubt that the former vice-president who indeed supposed to know better is been hounded and tormented by the ghost and shadow of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who he has unjustifiably and maliciously been malign and attack continually without any cogent reasons other than his vainglory and inordinate ambition to occupy Aso Villa, a topmost job that he doesn’t have the capacity, knowledge, wherewithal, technical-knowhow, emotional and mental capacity, and more importantly, temperate to manage.

The crux of the matter remains: his insensitive, unbecoming and reckless pronouncement set the tone for the eventual collapse of ADC.

Virtually all national assembly members and other key political figures of the party across the country have defected to one party or the other. And, in the weeks ahead, more of their members will still defect.

As far as ADC is concerned, things have indeed fallen apart. The centre can no longer hold.

Meanwhile, NDC-another fringe party that has remained in the political doldrums since it was registered have warmly received and welcomed the new brides-Obi and Kwankwaso, and their fellow nomad followers.

The leadership of the party might have accorded the duo the privileges of hoisting the party flag as the presidential and vice presidential candidates.

But, what becomes of the hurriedly arranged union between Obi and Kwankwaso?

Of course, the relationship is not rooted in political ideology, principles, ethos or desire to serve the country. Far from it!

It’s a sudden and strange union rooted in individual inordinate ambition, ego, desire for continual political relevance, and more importantly, fervent desire to benefit maximally from the nation treasury.     

Peter Obi has never participated in building any political party. He has never been loyal to any party either. He dreads the party’s primary election like a plague. He obviously doesn’t believe that any party member is superior to him, regardless. He is only comfortable with a party that hands over to him a presidential ticket on the platter of gold and he’s been lucky in this respect.

Bolaji Abdulahi-Publicity Secretary of ADC captured Peter Obi’s expectation in the party succinctly “He just wanted the party’s presidential ticket handed to him and wasn’t interested in ADC’s policies whatsoever”

Meanwhile, Nigerians vividly recollect that Rabiu Kwankwaso during a recent appearance at Chatham House in London boasted that on the basis of his better education and political experience, he was a superior candidate to Peter OBI and to that extent, he would never be his running mate.

Dr. Datti Ahmed, Peter Obi’s running mate during the 2023 presidential elections made this submission concerning the compatibility of the duo “However, remember, why didn’t Rabiu Kwankwaso support Peter Obi in 2023? What has changed now in the race to 2027? You have a vice president that is older than you in age, education, political profile, and many other things; and this is somebody with a burning ambition and temperament. Who is going to be the president actually?

Datti Ahmed went further that it’s highly unlikely the North would back Obi and his potential running mate.  

From the foregoing, it’s absolutely clear that the band of opposition are in quandary. Their plan to present a common candidate to challenge the president has hit the rock, even, 6 months before the poll.

All their nocturnal meetings and plots to unhorse the president have paled into insignificance.

Their moving helter skelter to Abuja, Kano, Bauchi, Ibadan and other locations across the world, plotting to unseat Tinubu has become fruitless.

In their camps-ADC and NDC and others, things have completely fallen apart. The centre could no longer hold. The Falconets could no longer hear the Falcon.

Against all odds, the president is clearly projected for RE-ELECTION during the forthcoming general elections.

With the tacit support of more than 30 governors and FCT, Abuja, as well as 75 percent firm control of national assembly-Lower and Upper Chambers, the president is expected to achieve the followings:

80%, 75%, 60%, 65%, 70% and 60% in South/south, South/west, South/east, North/west, North/central and North/east respectively.

It’s a conservative projection. It could be better than this.   

The projection above is anchored on various milestones accomplished by the APC ruling government in the last three years:

Firstly, the administration has delivered impressive economic records with a continued impressive trade surplus, foreign reserves that presently stands at $48.33 billion, NGX that has crossed ₦110 trillion mark –indication of solid trust and confidence of local and foreign investors in the nation economy, and of course, humongous savings from fuel subsidy removal that have facilitated availability of huge monthly allocations to the three tiers of government, a tremendous development that has necessitated spring up of infrastructural facilities, medical and educational improvement, technological and digital architecture, as well as improvement in social facilities all across the country.

Secondly, the administration venturing into audacious road projects of Lagos-Calabar coastal express road, Lagos-Sokoto-Illela-Badagry express way, as well as Trans Saharan Road projects are all developmental initiatives that are totally unprecedented in the annals of this country.

Thirdly, it’s also instructive to stress very clearly the administration’s Petroleum, Power and Tax sector reforms, developments with potentials to completely turn the tide in the economic landscape in the foreseeable future, and ultimately place the nation in the midst of developed nations across the globe.

More importantly, the nation is presently blessed with a president who runs an inclusive government affording every Nigerian opportunity to pursue and fulfill their individual aspirations regardless of ethnicity, creed, sex, religion and even, political affiliations.                

It’s also important to emphasize that the country is presently blessed with a very resourceful, wily, courageous, audacious, patriotic president who knows Nigeria sufficiently well and has never shirk in taking decisions, however tough.

As things presently stand, Asiwaju Tinubu remains the only candidate capable of meeting the constitutional requirement of 25% in 24 states, and even in FCT, Abuja and spread all over the country. None of the expected opposition candidates comes closer.

Besides, the fragmentation of the opposition groups has left them prostrated and totally castrated ahead of 2027 polls.

Kola AMZAT (FCA, FCIB)

Lagos based Financial & Management Consultants,

09077509348.