Hezbollah’s vulnerability exposed: A shifting power dynamic with Israel

For years, Hezbollah was regarded as the world’s premier non-state actor: well-equipped, well-trained, well-led, highly disciplined, and secretive—the crown jewel of Iran’s allies across the Middle East.

In May 2000, the group managed to drive Israel out of southern Lebanon after a grueling guerilla conflict. Six years later, it fought Israel to a standstill in a 34-day war.

Since then, the Iranian-backed group has expanded its arsenal of missiles and drones. In Syria, its troops fought alongside Iran and Russia against the opposition to the Assad regime. For the past 11 months, Hezbollah has exchanged fire with Israel along the border almost daily, forcing more than 62,000 Israelis to flee their homes in northern Israel, while over 100,000 Lebanese have fled the border area.

However, this summer, Hezbollah’s façade of strength began to slip. On the evening of July 30, an Israeli drone fired two missiles into a residential building in southern Beirut, killing senior Hezbollah commander Fu’ad Shukr. On Tuesday, at approximately 3:30 p.m. Beirut time, hundreds, perhaps thousands, of devices exploded across areas where Hezbollah has a strong presence, wounding almost 3,000 people and killing at least 12.

On Wednesday afternoon, a fresh wave of explosions rocked Beirut’s southern suburbs and towns in southern Lebanon, killing at least nine people, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Many of the devices that detonated were walkie-talkies, images showed.

While Hezbollah has yet to release precise numbers, it’s clear many of its rank and file were injured in the explosions.

Taken together, the missile attack and the exploding devices represent a significant infiltration by Israel into Hezbollah’s critical command and control networks. Never has the group been so vulnerable, nor has it been so compromised.

Hezbollah has vowed revenge on Israel, and its credibility depends on it. But realistically, what can it do?

Not much, as its recent track record suggests.

To avenge Shukr’s killing, on August 25, Hezbollah launched more than 300 drones and missiles at targets in Israel. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed the strikes hit the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency and Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence unit. Israel denied that any important targets were struck, and no evidence has been made public to contradict that denial.

Most of the individuals carrying the devices that exploded were likely field officers—the local linchpins for cells of fighters who form the backbone of Hezbollah’s forces. Now, perhaps two thousand or more have been temporarily incapacitated or worse.

The communications network, of which the pagers and walkie-talkies were a key part, is almost certainly offline.

Hezbollah’s intelligence officers must be desperately trying to figure out how this breach occurred.

Even if Hezbollah decides to retaliate against Israel, how will the orders be passed down the line, and who will—or even can—carry them out?

The ongoing border conflict has already cost Hezbollah dearly. The group concedes it has lost more than 400 fighters since October last year, compared to around 250 killed in the much more intense 34-day war with Israel in 2006.

“Morale is high, and the injured will return to the front,” a man who described himself as a “Hezbollah supporter” told CNN as he waited for news of a wounded friend being treated in hospital.

Hezbollah is cornered. Israel is no longer willing to tolerate the slow-burn war on its northern border and is resorting to increasingly extreme and potentially escalatory measures. There is little Hezbollah can do to stop Israel or to effectively retaliate.

Credit: CNN