ADC, Obidients, David Mark, activate Plan B immediately! — by Charles Novia

This afternoon, I had a phone conversation with Legal Luminary and a well-known Lawyer, Barrister Liborous Oshoma, who is also from my state, Edo State.

We spoke mostly about the ADC crisis after he mentioned that he read my piece yesterday on the options before ADC right now.

This evening on ‘Politics Today’ on Channels TV, I watched him analyse the Federal High Court’s ruling given today against the David Mark-led ADC. He and I had discussed that earlier. His breakdown of the implications of that judgment for the Supreme Court’s judgment being expected on the 30th of April, made me ponder more on present realities for the ADC on the ground.

First, even if the David Mark-led ADC gets a favorable judgement at the Supreme Court, this new ruling by the Federal High Court is another hurdle they have to fight and THERE IS NO TIME FOR THAT. The FHC ruling effectively bars INEC from recognising the David Mark leadership based on infractions to the ADC Constitution by the David Mark leadership!

What has just happened is that those factions within the ADC who have been suspected of being lackeys of Tinubu and the APC waited until the last minute to slam this new judgement on David Mark. These guys are more than evil geniuses. They are not playing! Their goal of making Tinubu the only candidate on the ballot in the 2027 Presidential Election is task they are carrying out ruthlessly.

I wrote earlier that for this democracy to survive in Nigeria, for us not to be reduced to less than a Banana Republic, we have to ensure that Opposition Politics thrives in Nigeria and Nigerians must fight against attempts to truncate this democracy by one man’s whims. I still stand by this.

However, I am baffled how very astute politicians and brilliant lawyers in the ADC, a cream of some of the finest we have in the country and some of the most experienced, DIDN’T SEE THE WARNING SIGNS SINCE LAST YEAR and were cavalier about such. It beats me.

This Nafiu Gombe issue and the present factional State Chairmen issue could have easily been settled almost a year ago by the David Mark leadership. How did they let this get to this stage?

But let me also state something which I will expound on in later posts.

The 2027 Presidential Election is not going to be an election between APC/Tinubu and another major political party.

It will be an election between Tinubu and Angry Nigerians. It will be the biggest referendum this country has ever witnessed.

I write this because I believe in a matter of days, not more than next week, the whole apparatus of the present ADC led by David Mark, will port MASSIVELY to another political party to beat the INEC DEADLINE and to fight for democracy.

This is the only option and the Plan B. It might seem like a setback but in the long run, it is the best option to take and majority of Nigerians who believe that Tinubu can be defeated, will follow to the new party.

I can confidently say that the Obidients will follow Peter Obi wherever he goes, so this will not be an issue. But I also think that it gives Obi and Kwankwaso a big chance to find a platform for their ticket, if the shadow of an Atiku won’t weigh their ambitions. More on this later.

The available parties open and willing for the ‘ADC Refugees’ right now are the NDC and the PRP. We will see which one will be the choice in a few days.

Tactically, I would prefer that they all move to the People’s Redemption Party. It has a ground following already in the North and would be easier for the ADC loyalists in the North to port to and continue their political campaigns. It’s been a party in existence by name and recognition since 1979 or 1978 when it was founded by the late Mallam Aminu Kano.

The second option will be the NDC, new and with no hangups.

This mass porting will mean that David Mark and his executives will not lead the new parties. There is no time for that. They will all move to a new party with a common goal; a coalition to defeat Tinubu in 2027.

Unless there are contingency plans against the ruling of the FHC today, irrespective of the Supreme Court’s ruling, the mass exodus begins from next week when the Plan B is activated.

The only way this might not happen is if the Supreme Court rules firmly that courts have no jurisdiction over party matters and quash the several High Court Judgements.

–Novia is a renowned filmmaker and public affairs analyst