Cost of living protest: Any parallel between Nigeria and Kenya? By Dapo Okubanjo

Kenya had for several weeks been literally in the eye of the storm over an anti-government protest triggered by the ill-fated attempt by President William Ruto to introduce a finance law targeted at raising taxes.

It was to be an alternative to adding to the country’s over-bloated debt profile, which was no longer sustainable with a debt service to revenue ratio of over 60%. The government’s intention was to generate $2.7 billion in tax revenue.

What began as anti-tax hike sentiments online snowballed into weeks of violent protests on the streets of Nairobi before spreading to about 35 of the country’s 47 counties. It resulted in at least 50 deaths, widespread damage to government property, large-scale looting, and the destruction of private businesses.

The opposition Azimio alliance, led by veteran politician Raila Odinga, had led several anti-government protests, including one in October last year against the high cost of living.

But the latest demonstrations were not organized by the opposition. They were spearheaded by a new generation of largely apolitical Kenyans who felt shortchanged that, in spite of backing Ruto during the 2022 election and giving his administration two years to make things happen, he was about to further worsen the cost of living crisis with a burdensome tax hike.

After Ruto withheld his assent to the new tax law, the protesters pushed for more until the government said enough was enough.

Cue to Nigeria. The country is on the verge of what has been variously tagged “days of rage” and “end bad governance” protests, which appear to have been inspired by what happened in the East African nation.

But unlike Kenya, the ‘Gen Zs’ are not the ones threatening to take it from social media to the streets. Known supporters of presidential candidates who lost to President Tinubu in the 2023 elections are publicly at the forefront of the initiative.

Some opposition figures are also actively stoking the embers of the proposed protest by tacitly encouraging their supporters to “end bad governance.”

Unlike Kenya, there are no new taxes to worsen the plight of Nigerians already buffeted by the domino effects of the twin policies of the Tinubu administration on the cost of living.

The irony, which many, especially in the opposition ranks, do not want to acknowledge, is that the government has even caused a reduction in the number of official taxes.

Besides, there is a new withholding tax regime that exempts farmers, manufacturers, and small business owners with an annual turnover of less than N25 million. This was done long before Kenya’s anti-tax protest, so there is no way anyone could say it was a knee-jerk reaction by the government. It is part of the mitigating measures constantly being rolled out by the Tinubu administration.

This is in stark contrast to the pre-protest attitude of the Kenyan authorities, which had given the impression that they had no choice but to introduce new taxes.

The truth is that things are hard for the average Nigerian. In the immediate aftermath of the removal of the fuel subsidy, inflation hit an all-time high, buoyed by rising food and transport costs in the last year.

Many analysts have said it was expected because there was no way the fuel subsidy would be removed and prices of goods would not climb, contrary to the politically fueled impression that there are better ways to do it.

In fairness to the Tinubu administration, the government had been emphatic that what it did was necessary to free up funds and stop the trend of borrowing that was no longer sustainable.

The President himself has also, on several occasions, maintained that the adverse effects on prices of goods and services are temporary, short-term pain with long-term positive effects on revenue accruing to all tiers of government.

Indeed, with more funds available to the federal government, it was easy to roll out a historic student loan scheme that tens of thousands of students from public universities are already benefiting from through tuition and upkeep allowances.

There is a consumer credit scheme that is starting with civil servants as the first beneficiaries, as well as a revitalized N110 billion National Youth Investment Fund (NYIF) to be managed by the Ministry of Youth Development.

Even before protesters served notice of ’10 days of rage,’ the Tinubu administration had announced an impending 150-day duty-free window for food imports in response to rising food inflation, while the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security continues to push out policies designed to ramp up food production in collaboration with subnational governments.

The Finance Ministry, which had been reassessing the government’s social protection initiatives in the aftermath of allegations of financial malfeasance in the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation, has resumed payment of direct benefits to vulnerable people.

These are not knee-jerk measures introduced to nip the planned protest in the bud. They are well-planned interventions to lessen the burden on Nigerians.

So the government is not acting oblivious to genuine concerns over economic hardship and waiting till D-Day to clamp down on protesters. As senior government officials have been saying for days, the Tinubu administration is addressing what needs to be addressed, not unrealistic demands like the release of Biafra agitator Nnamdi Kanu and the scrapping of the 1999 constitution.

And if Nigerians need any advice from Kenya on the so-called hardship protests being pushed by conflict entrepreneurs, here is one from a Methodist clergyman in Nairobi, Bishop Wycliffe Khaemba, One Ministry Methodist Church, Kenya:

“We allowed ourselves to be led into violent protests and disturbances, thinking they would lead to a desired outcome. Unfortunately, they have resulted in an undesirable outcome.

“Tens of thousands of small and medium-scale enterprises have been destroyed along with major public infrastructure, and people’s lives have been turned upside down. The education of our next generation has been affected, and we are not even back at square one. We are farther back.

“My message to Nigeria is this: Do not wait to learn from your mistakes. Instead, learn from our error of judgment in Kenya.

“Those who are sponsoring these protests from abroad will not come and help you rebuild Lagos and Abuja after violent protesters destroy your cities. Instead, they will offer you cutthroat loans to keep you in bondage to them.”

There is indeed nothing else to add!

Okubanjo, a journalist and public affairs analyst, writes from Abuja via [email protected].