Nigeria’s 2026 inflation forecast to reach 16.9%, says S&P Global 

S&P Global has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s average inflation rate in 2026 to 16.9 per cent  , from its earlier projection of 15per cent, citing stronger-than-expected pass-through from oil prices to domestic energy costs.

The ratings agency disclosed this in its latest assessment, titled Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Q3 2026: Inflationary Pressures Will Persist.

It also lowered Nigeria’s gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 30 basis points each, to 3.7per cent and 3.5per cent , respectively, while maintaining that the economy would remain resilient.

S&P Global said inflationary pressures have increased across emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, with Nigeria and Turkiye among the countries experiencing higher energy inflation.

The agency added that food inflation could rise in the coming months due to increased transportation and fertiliser costs.

“Compared with our March baseline, we have raised our inflation projections and lowered our growth forecasts for most EM economies in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.”

“Energy inflation has picked up broadly across the region, particularly in Nigeria and Turkiye.”

“We expect food inflation to increase over the coming months due to higher transportation and fertilizer costs.”

“Among key EM EMEA economies, we raised our inflation forecast for Nigeria the most, to 16.9per cent  in 2026 from 15per cent .”

S&P Global said the revised inflation outlook reflects the stronger-than-expected transmission of higher oil prices into domestic energy inflation.

The agency said Nigeria’s inflation outlook has affected its growth expectations, given the importance of household consumption to the economy.