Presidency dismisses Atiku’s N7.98tn oil windfall claim

….says crude output shortfall offset price gains

The Presidency on Sunday dismissed former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s claim that Nigeria realised a N7.98 trillion windfall from the recent Middle East conflict between the United States and Iran, insisting that no such revenue accrued to the country.

In a statement titled “Facts, Not Fear: A Point-by-Point Response to Atiku Abubakar on Nigeria’s Reform Journey,” the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, described the claim as inaccurate and challenged Atiku to provide the basis for his calculation.

“There is no such windfall of N7.98 trillion,” Onanuga said.

The Presidency said Atiku had wrongly accused the administration of President Bola Tinubu of fiscal recklessness by criticising its borrowing plans, fuel subsidy removal, tax reforms and what he described as an oil windfall from the recent conflict.

Responding to the allegation, the Presidency explained that while global oil prices rose during the period, the increase did not automatically translate into a revenue windfall for Nigeria.

According to Onanuga, “Any incremental revenue from higher oil prices is reflected in the monthly FAAC figures,” adding that although Brent crude averaged about $90 per barrel in the first half of 2026, above the $64.85 benchmark, Nigeria’s average daily crude production was only about 1.6 million barrels per day, below the budget projection of 1.84 million barrels per day.

He said the production shortfall significantly reduced the gains from higher oil prices.

“In addition, some crude volume had been pledged for loans used to pay for the wasteful subsidy in the past, which the President was bold enough to remove, stopping the bleeding but not immediately translating into available revenue,” he said.

The Presidency also faulted what it described as simplistic calculations of government oil earnings based solely on crude prices and production volumes.

“The convenient mistake many analysts make is to multiply the oil price by the daily crude production volume to determine revenue to the government,” Onanuga said.