Brazil votes in tight runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro
Brazilians voted on Sunday in a closely contested presidential runoff that could move Latin America’s largest nation sharply to the right, bringing it closer to the United States amid a broader conservative shift across the region.
The runoff pits leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio scored a major upset at the start of the month by defying pollsters to lead voting in the first round.
A victory for Bolsonaro, 45, would extend a wave of right-wing victories for Latin American candidates friendly to US President Donald Trump, while a fourth mandate for Lula would disappoint Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security.
Reuters reported on Saturday that a campaign was underway within Trump’s State Department to help return the Bolsonaro family to power. Trump has so far declined to endorse either candidate. Asked on Sunday who he hoped would win, he told reporters in Washington: “I don’t want to get into that, but we are watching.”
Brazil’s election has been dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and allegations of US interference, which Washington denies. The campaign has also been shaped by the fallout from Jair Bolsonaro’s 2025 conviction for plotting a coup in 2022, with Flávio pledging to free his father if elected.
Trump has described the case against Jair Bolsonaro as a “witch hunt” and imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Brazil in 2025, explicitly linking the decision to the former president’s trial. Although the tariffs were later reduced, Trump introduced new levies against Brazil this year, citing unfair trade practices.
Lula has portrayed the Trump administration’s relationship with the Bolsonaro family as part of an attempt to influence the election, describing tariffs and other punitive measures as bullying.
“We can’t just hand Brazil over,” said Elenildes dos Reis, a 60-year-old lawyer in São Paulo who voted for Lula. She said his victory would be a way of standing up to Trump and what she described as a rising wave of fascism.
“It won’t just be our victory, it will be the world’s,” she added.
Despite declining inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to win over voters grappling with high living costs and heavy household debt. Persistent gang violence has also remained a major concern.
Bolsonaro has sought to capitalise on economic concerns and promised a tough approach to crime, including maximum-security prisons and chemical castration for serious sexual offences.
“We need change,” said José Carlos Jarra, a 61-year-old retiree in São Paulo who voted for Bolsonaro. He said he hoped the senator would improve public security and do more for retirees, describing Brazil’s minimum wage as “a disgrace”.
In Rio de Janeiro, 75-year-old retiree Alba Marques said her vote for Bolsonaro was motivated by opposition to Lula’s Workers’ Party rather than support for the senator.
“I can’t stand 40 years of a guy saying he’s going to fix Brazil anymore. The same promise,” she said.
The candidates remained closely matched in opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s runoff.
Casting his ballot in Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro urged voters to turn out “come rain or shine”. Lula voted in São Bernardo do Campo, near São Paulo, and thanked his supporters.
“What the people did for me these past few days is something I can never repay,” Lula told reporters.
Historical precedent favours Bolsonaro, as no candidate has ever won Brazil’s presidency after finishing second in the first round. Bolsonaro secured 47 per cent of the votes cast in the first round, while Lula trailed with 45 per cent.
Bolsonaro’s first-round victory sent Brazil’s markets and currency higher amid expectations of pro-business reforms. His performance was mirrored in congressional elections, where his Liberal Party and other right-wing politicians made gains that could provide him with legislative support or complicate governance for Lula.
Credit: Reuters
