Verheijen to African leaders: Compete smartly or miss out on global energy capital
At the 2025 Africa CEO Forum, Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser on Energy to President Bola Tinubu, delivered a clear message to African policymakers and business leaders: Africa must compete intentionally for global investment or risk being left behind. “Capital has no passport,” she said. “Sentimental appeals to ‘African capital’ are a distraction. Capital is opportunistic, not patriotic—it flows where risk-adjusted returns are competitive.”
Verheijen highlighted the steep decline in upstream capital investment in Africa, which dropped from $340 billion between 2011 and 2015 to a projected $130 billion between 2026 and 2030. She described this not as a temporary setback but a “structural decimation.” According to her, investment capital now gravitates toward projects that demonstrate strong economics, low carbon intensity, and predictable governance—traits that currently favor regions like the Permian Basin, Guyana, and Brazil.
To secure a share of the estimated $500 billion in global upstream spending each year, she said African nations must create environments of clarity, competitiveness, and confidence. Verheijen cited Nigeria’s recent success, noting how the country unlocked over $8 billion in deepwater and gas investments within a year through focused reforms, improved fiscal terms, streamlined contracting, and power sector changes.
“We moved from gridlock to greenlight, and investors responded,” she said. Verheijen added that Africa’s strength lies in onshore, shallow-water, and domestic gas projects—areas where local players understand the landscape, risks, and potential rewards. She encouraged African financial institutions, including development banks and pension funds, to fill the vacuum left by international oil companies (IOCs) by offering tailored instruments and risk-sharing solutions.
She praised the efforts of Nigerian companies such as Seplat, Oando, and the Renaissance Africa Energy Consortium, which are leading a shift from foreign dominance to indigenous ownership. Renaissance’s acquisition of Shell’s onshore joint venture, she said, marked a symbolic transition from colonial-era concessions to African control.
On infrastructure, she spotlighted the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery as proof of what African ambition can achieve. “Built by African capital, African hands, and African ambition, this is not aspirational—it is operational,” she declared, describing the refinery as a milestone in industrial scale for the continent.
Verheijen also pointed to Nigeria’s growing local equity in gas production, which rose from 69 percent to 83 percent, and Seplat’s recent 390 mmcfd gas deal with NNPC as signs of increasing energy self-reliance. She stressed that these are not just statistics but signals of a “seismic shift” in control and ownership of Africa’s energy future.
Despite this progress, she emphasized that international capital remains crucial, as IOCs still account for over half of production and investment in sub-Saharan Africa. “They’re no longer chasing barrels—they’re chasing value: low-cost, low-carbon, de-risked assets,” she noted. Concluding her remarks, Verheijen called on African nations to abandon dependency narratives and instead become investment destinations by design—built on policy clarity, commercial logic, and strategic intent.
