Zenith Bank, others may suspend dividend payments till 2028 – Rencap Report

A new research note by Renaissance Capital has revealed that Zenith Bank Plc, among other big banks are facing significant exposure to regulatory forbearance loans and may likely suspend dividend payout till 2028.

The report titled “Nigerian Banks, Cash is King” suggests some are now likely to suspend dividend payments for multiple years as they work to meet stricter prudential standards imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The notice follows a June 13 directive from the CBN, instructing banks with unresolved forbearance exposures to halt dividend payments, defer executive bonuses, and suspend all new investments in offshore subsidiaries.

“Following the CBN’s directive, we expect the banking arms of Accesscorp, Firstholdco, and Zenith Bank to pause dividend payments until they have fully provided for their forbearance exposure and single obligor limit exposures.

“Specifically, we anticipate that the banking arms of Accesscorp, Firstholdco and Zenith Bank to potentially resume dividend payments in 2028. As such, we expect dividend payments henceforth to come from the non-banking subsidiaries of the above-mentioned Groups.”

The aim, the CBN said, is to strengthen capital buffers and ensure adequate provisioning against impaired loans, especially those that risk breaching the regulatory Single Obligor Limit (SOL).

The suspension is expected to remain in place until affected banks have fully provisioned for their forbearance exposures and phased them out entirely.

For several banks under coverage, analysts at Renaissance Capital expect both interim and final dividends to be paused indefinitely.

An earlier report by Renaissance Capital, published by, indicated that nearly all Nigerian banks had some level of exposure to forbearance-related loans and could face restrictions on dividend payments.

However, the analysis was based on data from the first half of 2024 and may not account for the significant progress some banks have made since then in addressing these exposures, hence the need for the latest update.

According to Renaissance Capital’s estimates, Zenith Bank, FirstBank, and Access Bank rank highest in terms of forbearance exposure.

The research notes that Zenith Bank carries forbearance loans equivalent to 23per cent of its gross loan book, FirstBank has an exposure of 14per cent, and Access Bank stands at four perr cent

Tier-II lenders are also affected, with Fidelity Bank and FCMB carrying exposures of 10per cent and four per cent respectively.

In contrast, GTCO and Stanbic IBTC have zero exposure to forbearance loans, having already cleaned up their books.

GTCO, in particular, had proactively provisioned for and written off these exposures as of December 2024.

According to the report, estimates for GTCO, UBA, Fidelity, and FCMB were based on recent management engagements, while the forecast for Zenith Bank was drawn from a December 2024 interaction.

In absolute terms, exposures remain significant. Renaissance Capital estimates Zenith Bank’s total forbearance exposure at $1.6 billion, followed by FirstBank at $887 million and Access Bank at $304 million.

Other notable exposures include Fidelity Bank at $296 million, UBA at $282 million, and FCMB at $134 million. Rencap stated their figures in United States Dollars.

Meanwhile, FCMB Group Plc has moved to reassure investors.

In a statement issued Monday, the bank confirmed that it has made significant progress in reducing its exposure to loans under regulatory forbearance, bringing down the total from N538.8 billion in September 2024 to N207.6 billion as of May 31, 2025.

FCMB expects these loans to fully exit the forbearance regime in the near term, which will likely lead to a temporary increase in Stage 3 non-performing loans, peaking around 11.5% of the total loan portfolio before declining to below 10% by year-end, aided by anticipated loan growth.

It also stated that it is still planned to pay dividends from its other subsidiary companies.