ANALYSIS: Picking BAT’s running mate, the 4 factors that will count, By Chris Adetayo

Now that he has the ticket, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is faced with the task of picking a running mate. He has less than 2 weeks to make this happen. To pick one, he has to consider 4 key factors. These are geography, religion, political capital, and personal qualifications.

Geography – He cannot pick someone from the South. That leaves him with 3 zones in the North. The NE has produced his major challenger (Atiku) so perhaps there’s not a lot to be gained from picking a running mate from there. The NW is the most voter-rich in the country so that’s a big incentive. The NC is amorphous and this detracts from its collective value.

Religion – The unstated rule of Nigeria is that a Muslim president must have a Christian VP, and vice versa. Only exceptions to this rule was when Buhari and Idiagbon (both Muslims) held away in 1984/85, and when Aguiyi-Ironsi, a Christian, had Ogundipe as his nominal Deputy (though this was never officially in the Number 2 role). So BAT picking a Christian seems logical. But will this be as crucial a factor as it has always been?

Political Capital – BAT has many IOUs to pay. He didn’t get the ticket on a platter. Several groups and persons came together to ensure he got it. The most important of these, perhaps, is the group of progressive Governors. 13 of them from the North. They will expect some pay back. Several of them are completing their 2nd term in office so it’s either the VP or a sojourn to the graveyard of Governors – the Senate.

Personal Qualities – this will be crucial. Apart from experience, BAT will be looking to pick someone whose temperament will mesh seamlessly with his. Recall that he had 2 Deputy Governors (Bucknor-Akerele and Femi Pedro) impeached when he was Governor of Lagos. Why? They became too big for their britches. This tells us that he will want someone able to operate under the radar and not given to rocking the boat.

Given the above, what is the patented Politic-o-meter predicting?

As at today, the smart money is on a Muslim Governor from the NW. Yes, a Muslim-Muslim ticket. This will rile many and be considered a breach of an unstated agreement. But BAT can always make the argument that religion is not crucial to winning the SW, he has a Christian wife who is a Minister in RCCG, he’s unlikely to win in the SE whatever he does, and the voter-rich NW needs to be present on the ticket. There was a clue to this line of thought when he made his victory speech on Wednesday. Find it and read up.