Nigeria’s economic engine is revving while critics are still using old lenses, by Olabode Opeseitan
An old Nigerian wisecrack says: “Even the man who failed economics can explain inflation at the bus stop.” In today’s Nigeria, everyone—especially those who have no clue about economic fundamentals—has an economic theory. The loudest voices claim the economy is “not working,” usually arguing from a market stall, using catfish prices as evidence. But is the market really telling the whole story? Or are we missing a silent revolution, powered by deliberate policy choices and hard-won progress on the export front?
Beyond the Price Tag: The Fundamentals
The real question is whether Nigeria is retrogressing—or stealthily leaping forward. Let’s look beyond the familiar chorus of inflation and food prices. Since 2024, driven by President Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria has staged an export comeback. The evidence? In the first half of 2025, non-oil exports surged nearly 20% to $3.225 billion, reaching 4.04 million metric tons. More than 197 products—up from 162 just a year ago—now fly Nigeria’s flag in markets from Ghana to Vietnam, with cocoa, fertilizer, and cashew nuts leading the way.
As Ayemibo Bamidele, Board Chair of the Institute of Export and International Trade, recently quipped: “Nigeria is not having a deficit right now. Our export is outweighing import… With what The Nigerian Export Promotion Council is doing—‘Double Your Export’—the trajectory is looking positive. The half-year report shows positive and we expect the volume will double”.
The Initiatives Powering the New Export Reality
What’s behind this transformation? Not wishful thinking, but targeted government actions:
NEPC’s “Double Your Export” Drive: Aggressive support for value-added processing, export credit insurance, and funding for businesses scaling up supply chains.
“Project Earn from the Soil”: A flagship push for agricultural export led by food security goals, especially in transforming subsistence farming into robust, export-focused enterprise—think “From Shovel to Shanghai”.
National Single Window Project: Launch slated for 2026 to digitalize, decongest, and fast-track all trade procedures—a nightmare for lovers of bureaucracy, a dream for traders and exporters.
Intra-African and Global Trade Push: Leveraging AfCFTA, Nigeria exported 663 million metric tons to ECOWAS states in H1 2025, and nearly $84 million worth to African markets outside ECOWAS. Regional trade is up by over 223% in volume, further shrinking barriers for local exporters.
Banking on Exports: 29 Nigerian banks now actively finance export transactions, giving small and midsize businesses lifelines into new markets.
International Endorsements—and a Reality Check
Even the World Bank has noticed. In its May 2025 Nigeria Development Update: “External balances have improved further. The external trade deficit decreased significantly, due primarily to an increase in export growth…” Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to reach 9.4% of GDP in 2026—no small feat for a country once beset by import addiction. The IMF notes, “Major reforms have improved macroeconomic stability and enhanced resilience.”
What People Get Wrong—and What’s Often Left Out
Here’s what’s not in the bus stop debates:
Growth isn’t just about oil. Non-oil exports are rising faster than ever, with industrial and processed agricultural goods leading the charge.
Export volume is the leading indicator, not just the naira’s value on Forex.
Trade surpluses fuel fiscal strength, helping narrow the government’s deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, while also supporting tax expansion and revenue growth.
Exporting isn’t for “big men” alone: SMEs and youth are now central to new market gains, especially in emerging African and Asian supply chains.
Government’s export credit insurance and AfCFTA-facing diplomacy are cushioning Nigerians against global trade shocks.
The Takeaway
Next time that any bus stop “economic expert” tells you all is lost because onions are expensive, ask: “But have you seen Nigeria’s export numbers this year?” Sometimes, the juiciest growth stories are hiding behind containers at Apapa port.
