IMPI projects inflation drop to 17% by December 2025
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation will fall to 17 per cent by December 2025, following a steady disinflationary trend that saw inflation drop to 20.12 per cent in August. The think tank described the decline as the sharpest mid-year slowdown in over a decade, falling from 24.5 per cent in January.
In its latest policy statement signed by Chairman Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI said the country is witnessing a rare and sustained period of disinflation, a trend it noted was last seen in 2017 and 2018. It emphasized that unlike the inflationary spikes of 2020–2024, the 2025 figures mark a meaningful and sustained moderation in consumer prices.
Responding to criticisms that the inflation drop has had little impact on the public, IMPI said such claims ignore the broader macroeconomic improvements. “We consider this an expression of the intention not to acknowledge the federal administration’s positive strides,” the group stated.
The think tank identified three key drivers of the current trend: the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy, improved exchange rate stability from increased FX inflows, and better agricultural output due to calm in food-producing areas. It noted that inflation is now below the Central Bank’s 21 per cent target, putting the federal goal of 15 per cent within reach.
IMPI also projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may begin easing interest rates, starting with a possible 50 basis-point cut at its next meeting. It expects a total reduction of 200 basis points by year-end and a review of the cash reserve ratio from 50 per cent to 35 per cent, which would lower borrowing costs and spur job creation.
The report highlighted that economic stability is beginning to reflect in corporate performance. It recalled how the naira float in June 2023 led to steep currency depreciation and FX losses, pushing several major consumer goods firms into a combined loss of ₦418 billion in Q1 2024 and ₦867 billion over two years.
However, by Q1 2025, those same firms— including BUA Foods, Cadbury Nigeria, Nestlé Nigeria, and others — had rebounded, posting a combined pre-tax profit of ₦289.8 billion. By Q2, their profits reached ₦264 billion, marking a sharp turnaround driven by currency stability and internal cost adjustments.
IMPI concluded that the positive shift in inflation and corporate earnings signals growing resilience in Nigeria’s economy. It argued that the effects of tough reforms, such as the naira float and fuel subsidy removal, are beginning to yield results, restoring investor confidence and business optimism.
