Will Nigeria’s business confidence surge translate to prosperity? By Olabode Opeseitan

• Performance Index Jumps 36.5 Points Since Oct 2024 Amid Global Slowdown

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has reported a remarkable surge in business performance, with the index rising from 76.8 in October 2024 to 113.3 in November 2025, a 36.5-point leap that signals renewed investor confidence.

This rebound is especially striking against the backdrop of global economic lethargy.

With the World Bank projecting global GDP growth in the mid-2 percent range through 2027, the slowest pace in two decades outside recessions, Nigeria’s momentum stands out.

The NESG also noted a month-on-month uptick from 111.3 to 113.3, suggesting that this resurgence is not episodic but part of a growing trend.

For businesses, an index above 100 indicates expansion. Firms are reporting stronger production, rising orders, and improved earnings. Trade and manufacturing are leading the charge, pointing to healthier sales volumes and more favorable operating conditions.

Yet, optimism must be tempered. Power shortages, high financing costs, policy challenges, and insecurity have taken some shine away from the recovery.

For citizens, the gains are more psychological than material. Job prospects are stabilizing, and corporate anxiety is easing, but real incomes and living standards have not matched the growing economic confidence.

To convert this business rebound into broad-based prosperity, Nigeria must sustain growth while tackling inflation, upgrading infrastructure, and improving public services.

The NESG warns against complacency. Without sustained decisive action, high operating costs and weak infrastructure could erode the gains.

The path from resilience to transformation demands consistency, bold reforms, and an aggressive rollout of the ongoing pan-Nigerian infrastructure renewal. The climb has begun, but the summit is still ahead.

The Tinubu-led Federal Government is tackling many of the challenges the NESG raised. For instance, inflation has dropped to 16.05% in October 2025, down from a high of 24.66% in February 2024, marking the lowest level since March 2022. Several infrastructure renewal projects are also underway across the country. Yet, the NESG’s warning against complacency remains both crucial and timely.